Climate Projections for the National Capital Commission (NCC)

• CBCL

» Scope of Project

The NCC is a federal crown corporation, and owns more than 10 percent of the land in Canada’s Capital Region, including 1,664 buildings and properties. The City of Ottawa manages public assets that support core service delivery for a population of approximately one million, the fourth largest City in the country.  CBCL recently completed a high-profile climate change project in the Ottawa region. The NCC and City of Ottawa hired CBCL to generate and communicate climate data to support future vulnerability assessments, climate adaptation and resiliency planning in the National Capital Region (NCR). The project included 3 major steps:

1.      Extensive stakeholder engagement to develop relevant climate indices, which were selected to provide meaningf projections that can be used by decision-makers;

2.      Analyses of climate model outputs to derive projections for temperature, precipitation, humidity, snow, and wind; and

3.      Guidance for management of uncertainty and future application to inform the management of key services, programs and assets.

Climate projections are used in climate risk assessments and support adaptation and resiliency planning for multiple sectors. The regional approach to developing climate projections encourages consistency across multiple jurisdictions with overlapping climate impacts and adaptation needs. Climate projections from this study (Phase 1) will help decision-makers to understand impacts on communities, infrastructure, economy and the natural environment (Phase 2), and plan for climate resilience and adaptation initiatives (Phase 3).

» Execution

The climate information was generated in the form of relevant climate indices (178 in total) to inform the management of key services, programs and assets, including:

•             Public health and safety.

•             Emergency Management Program.

•             Physical infrastructure.

•              Natural areas and assets.

•             Agriculture and other climate-sensitive economic activity.

•             Recreation and tourism, specifically including the Rideau Canal Skateway.

The project scope included:

•             Preparation and facilitation of an interactive workshop with decision makers to establish key climate indices of interest for the multiple services, programs and asset.

Downloading, manipulating, processing, and preparation of climate projection data sources. The primary source of climate projections was statistically downscaled ECCC data for the project area, with a spatial resolution of 10 km.

•             Application of index computations to these data sources.

•             Interpretation of results within appropriate contexts, uncertainty characterization, and generation of graphics.

•             Development of a thorough report, including feedback from project partners and stakeholders.

» Project Highlights

The report was recently released on the NCC Website: https://ncc-ccn.gc.ca/our-plans/climate-change-adaptation-initiative

City of Ottawa’s web page: https://ottawa.ca/en/living-ottawa/environment/climate-change-and-resiliency/climate-resiliency-0

It was also discussed on several media platforms, including the CBC: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ncc-ottawa-local-climate-projections-released-1.5602982

A successful public webinar was held on July 16, 2020 to facilitate next steps towards vulnerability assessments and implementation of climate adaptation measures.